Tuesday February 07, 2012



QUESTION OF THE WEEK

Survey results are meant for general information only, and are not based on recognised statistical methods.



$mart Money: When the clerk thinks he is smarter the Buffet

In July I was in Victoria for my sister’s wedding and I found myself making a late night run to the local convenience store. I happened to have a Berkshire Hathaway shirt on, as I often do being the Warren Buffett nut that I am. Even my kids have Berkshire Hathaway souvenier shirts. My daughter loves hers, although since she is three years old it is quite likely that she loves it simply because it is pink in colour.

Anyways, I am at the convenience store, and the clerk says something that I didn’t quite catch, as I was lost in my own thoughts while waiting in line to pay for my purchase. I ask him to repeat himself.

“Berkshire Hathaway,” he says. “That’s Warren Buffett’s company, right?”

“That’s right,” I say, slowly becoming aware of the situation, and finding myself pleased that a young man – a kid, really – would even know about Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett in the first place, but even more that he is interested enough to start a conversation with a stranger in a line up in a convenience store late at night.

(You know you are getting old when you think of university students as kids.)

I say, “Ya, I’ve been down to the Berkshire Hathaway AGM ten years in a row”, staking my ground as head of the unofficial Warren Buffett fan club, Fort St John chapter.

This is lost on my new friend, the convenience store clerk, as he is in a rush to tell me what he thinks. “I agree with Buffett that you should invest long-term,” he says. Well, so far so good. Of course, that’s kind of like saying that he agrees that smoking is hazardous to your health, but at least I’m still listening.

But then he says, “I think that long-term investments should form part of your portfolio, but then I also like to trade income securities.”

At this point I have lost all interest in whatever else he has to say.

I’m sure that the fellow is earnest in whatever it is he believes in. It’s just that I don’t really care in knowing what that is. I’m just being honest here.

He might as well have been wanting to tell me his favourite recipe for guacamole pie. I don’t like guacamole. I don’t care about his recipe.

You see, when the clerk working the late night shift at the convenience store says “I think that there is a place for investing long-term, but I also like to trade income securities what I actually hear is “I’m a babe in the woods and I have no idea what I am talking about.”

I don’t feel smug about any of this. I don’t look down my nose at the guy for working the late night shift at the convenience store. Back in my University days I delivered pizzas for a little extra income. I’ve been where he is.

And I didn’t take offense to what the clerk said. After all, he wasn’t saying that he was smarter than me. Hey, for all I know, maybe he is smarter than me. But you can be smart and still be wrong.

I don’t think of myself as intellectually superior. Just better informed.

You see, when he says, “I believe in Buffett, but…”, the word “but” indirectly indicates to me that he thinks that can improve on Buffett. Statistically the chance of that happening is as so close to zero that we might as well call it impossible.

Sure, theoretically it’s possible that the kid working the late night shift at the convenience store really is smarter than Warren Buffett. But it’s far, far, far, far more likely that he’s just a normal smart kid who has had his head filled with the foolishness that passes for investment ideas these days.

The kid has information. But he doesn’t have wisdom.

In my field I have a lot of knowledge. Outside my field I’m all thumbs. Here’s an example.

I’m trying to learn the game of golf. So I am taking lessons. I realize that I don’t know what I don’t know, so I’m getting help from a pro.

Of course, I don’t have to try to learn to golf from a guy that actually knows how. Alternatively I could try to learn to play the game from the many golf magazines that are out there. I could spend my day watching the golf channel on television. I could ask my equally uninformed friends what they think I should do. I could even look up golf on Wikipedia.

But what I have found out is that there isn’t a universal consensus on how to play golf. Some sources tell you to stand a certain way, other sources contradict. Some sources say the putt should die at the cup, others say putt seventeen inches past the cup. Some guys like one club, other guys like another.

So how do I – a babe in the woods when it comes to golf –sort through this paralyzing avalanche of information in order to learn what I need to know to enjoy the game?

It’s easy. I ask a pro. Not only does he know what I need to know, he knows what is going to work for a left-handed guy with a bit of a beer belly, who isn’t quite as limber as he used to be, and whose natural tendency is to swing the golf club like Happy Gilmore. In other words, what will work, and what won’t work, for my own unique situation.

Now here’s the thing about me and golf. I could have an opinion on the proper way to swing a club. After all, I’ve been exposed to information about golf.

But I’m not about to tell the golf pro what I think about golf. This isn’t some kind of utopian fantasy world where everyone’s opinion is equally valid. He knows what he’s talking about. I don’t. It’s time for me to shut up and listen, not expound on the subtle nature of my splendid natural draw

Maybe after I know enough about the game I can have a meaningful opinion about how to swing a golf club. As for right now, any opinion of mine on that subject would be uninformed, naïve, and to be blunt – not particularly valid. It’s not like the question is something like “do you like the colour blue?” where every answer is equally acceptable. I’ve got information, the golf pro has wisdom.

For some reason, the difference between information and wisdom is more blurry for some people when it comes to finances. University kids thinking that they should forgo Buffett and trade income securities as an example.

Whether it is golf or finances, if you don’t know what you are doing then you probably need to talk to a pro. Because information is not wisdom.

The opinions expressed are those of Brad Brain, CFP, R.F.P. CLU, CH.F.C., FCSI. Brad Brain is a Certified Financial Planner with Manulife Securities Incorporated, Member CIPF and with Manulife Securities Insurance Agency in Fort St John, BC. Brad Brain can be reached at brad.brain@manulifesecurities.ca or www.bradbrainfinancial.com.


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