It appears a quick end to winter is in store for Canada – that is, if you believe in the weather-forecasting abilities of small rodents.

As the tradition of Groundhog Day goes, if the groundhog emerges from its burrow on Feb. 2 and sees its shadow (generally on a sunny day), then winter weather will continue for another six weeks, but if does not see its shadow, then spring will come early.

While British Columbia does not have its own famous, furry forecaster, the consensus from some other rodents across the country seems to indicate we should see an early spring this year.

It has been reported that “Wiarton Wille,” a famous prognosticating woodchuck from Ontario, and “Shubenacadie Sam,” his counterpart from Nova Scotia, did not see their shadows when they emerged on Thursday morning. However, our friends south of the 49th parallel may not be so lucky, as Pennsylvania's “Punxsutawney Phil” is predicting six more weeks of winter.

However, a more reliable source for weather information, meteorologist Jim Steele with Environment Canada said winter typically ends in late March or early April in the B.C. Peace Region anyway, so residents here might feel like their stuck in a perpetual Groundhog Day. He said the forecast for the next few months appears to be on track with the average temperatures and levels of precipitation experienced in the region at this time of year.

“Indications are there is nothing out of the ordinary that should push temperatures one way or the other – either really warm or really cold – so normal temperatures and normal precipitation for February, March and April,” said Steele, though he cautioned there are a lot of factors that can change long-range forecasts.

However, he said these first few days of February have been slightly warmer than usual due to a high-pressure system building in the area. Environment Canada is forecasting a high of zero degrees and a low of minus 10 from Saturday until next Wednesday, with a mix of sunny and cloudy periods, but mostly sunny.

Steele said the average daily temperature in the region in February is minus 11, minus five in March and four degrees in April. The region experiences an average monthly snowfall of 25 centimetres in February, 23 centimetres of snow and one millimetre of rain in March, and 10 centimetres of snow and eight milimetres of rain in April.

The relatively mild winter experienced in the region so far is contrary to the long-range forecast provided by Environment Canada late last year, when it predicted a colder-than-average winter due to a phenomenon known as La Niña, where the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean is lower than normal by three to five degrees Celsius, which affects areas along the Pacific Rim, including British Columbia.

Steele said La Niña has been a factor this year, but it is ultimately just one factor, and its effects have been offset somewhat in this region by the fact that cold air that is normally driver south by an Arctic jet stream has not been as much of a factor this year. He said while a colder winter was more probable this year, ultimately it is not impossible for that forecast not to materialize.

That doesn’t mean we should rely on animals to predict our weather, however. In fact, experts explain the reason groundhogs emerge from their burrows in early February has more to do with finding food and mates than it does with the weather. Where the Groundhog Day tradition originates from is a matter of some debate, but in North America, it is thought to have been started by German settlers in southeastern and central Pennsylvania in the 19th Century.